Tuesday 6 July 2010

Royal Ascot: Rainfall can follow up to win in Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket


At Winbledon Had Royal Ascot been a match, the score would have been 6-0, 6-1, 6-0 to the punters. Bookmakers emerged from that meeting claiming that it had been their worst in living memory, so prescient was the market from one day to the next, and the July meeting at Newmarket, which opens today, is the best opportunity since for backers to inflict some more sustained punishment.
With money racegoers too this fixture is a special favourite, as the thatch of the July course is much more welcoming than the glass and concrete of the Rowley Mile grandstand. For all the mood of anticipation, though, it is worth recalling that last year's meeting opened with victory for a 66-1 opportunity, and that the bookies seldom have two bad festivals in a row. Many punters will place their faith in Aidan O'Brien in the Falmouth Stakes, and with his stable now racking up Group One winners with something like its normal frequency, his Lillie Langtry seems sure to start favourite for this intriguing meeting of the generations.
Older horses have taken half of the six renewals of this race since it was promoted to Group One status in 2004, though there is nothing of the calibre of Goldikova, last year's winner, in this field. Strawberrydaiquiri looks to be their main hope this time, but a narrow defeat of Spacious in at Royal Ascot still gives her something to find.
Lillie Langtry and Special Duty both have obvious chances, but their odds reflect that, and it must be a concern that the latter has twice required the stewards' intervention to achieve the status of a dual Classic winner. The price is what matters most in any race, and when looking for a filly whose chance may have been underestimated, it is Rainfall (3.10) that makes most appeal. She was fast-tracked to victory in a Group Two at the Royal meeting just six weeks after winning a maiden at Thirsk, and will not require much further progress to advance beyond her peers.
Richard Hughes suggested before Ascot that "we can't have all the best two-year-olds in the (Richard Hannon) yard", but Hannon may have rather more of them than his jockey realized, and Memory (2.35), the Albany Stakes winner, will be difficult to beat in the Cherry Hinton. The handicaps look treacherous, but Strictly Dancing (1.30) and the progressive Kelly's Eye (2.00) may both have a pound or two in hand of their ratings.

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